To reflect on Thailand’s ill-fated descent into November’s airport seizure and its effects on tourism, one must look back to 2006 and beyond to even get a basic grasp of its complexities and the resultant political shenanigans.

The man at the centre of all this was once set to become one of Asia’s greatest leaders; a premier who was the first since 1932 to serve a full parliamentary term and then be re-elected. But now, his fortunes seem to have been torn apart at the seams.

The fallout of the 2006 military coup reached a crescendo in November this year. Daring, bizarre and totally irresponsibly, his opponents — once his erstwhile friends — marched into Suvanabhumi airport and left thousands of people stranded.

I say bizarre because some of the militants were seen practicing their golf swings and as one Dutch observer remarked of the people dressed in yellow shirts: “I thought they were football supporters.” Add into the mix the news anchors who attempted to explain to the world how an ex-prime minister had been ousted for preparing chicken-bone soup and the oddness of it all that reduced Thailand into a seething political sit-com.

But not so for the 300,000 stranded tourists and the country on the brink of civil war; the 2006 coup had divided the nation into radical political camps where the stakes couldn’t have been higher.

Today, and it has been put off until 5pm, the policy statement by the new Abhisit government will hopefully be read and they will then be able to assume full powers of office.

But protesters are now back on the streets surrounding parliament, this time ex-PM Mr Thaksin’s supporters trying and stop the policy statement being read. Stupid really, as the constitution will allow them to form a government anyway if there are such disturbances. For the police and military, this time they are ready to stop any invasion of parliament, let alone the airport which has caused many businesses to fail.

Yes, it seems that they are partisan to a Democrat-led administration and will not allow a repeat of November’s woes, where General Paochinda, the army chief, refrained from any actions to stop the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The new PM has asked all sides to calm down in the spirit of reconciliation and it seems that renewed eruptions of violence and civil unrest are unlikely.

But let’s now step back a year or more to the cause of the unrest and ask why, with the financial tsunami lapping at Thailand’s ethereal shores, why the contest is still being played out even though Thailand is in desperate need to dispatch itself responsibly.

In 2006, Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted by a military coup following months of yellow-shirted protests on the streets of Bangkok, over what they allegedly viewed as policy corruption, capitalist cronyism and, of course the Temasek (to the Singapore government’s direct investment arm) buyout of the PM’s telecoms business. This year he was judged guilty of abuse on a land deal by his ex-wife and was sentenced to two years in prison. Subsequently the British government revoked his visa.

It was the Temasek deal that truly paved the way for the emergence of the PAD. The then-PM sold his shares in his telecoms company to Temasek and paid no tax on the $2bn deal as they were held in nominee names in the BVI, only to be sequestrated by the military government that took over power. He has been living in exile ever since.

Still, he had sufficient capital left over to finance last year’s elections and appointed what the Thai press and the PAD regarded as “puppets” in this place, to run the show at his bidding. The PAD, by the way, is an oxymoron for democracy, in that they don’t trust the people to elect who runs the country and want democratic elections suspended indefinitely.

Thailand has a strange set of political rules. Not only does the military have extensive interests, there is also no political ideology as we know it in the West. The Democrats are not democrats per se; the coalition partners have no particular left-right-centre leanings except to further self-interest. In fact, it’s an ideological free-for-all with factions being brought into play by the highest bidder.

But as of today, with the Democrats taking full responsibility of office hopefully later this afternoon, there will be a new functioning government. How did this come about? By the king-makers. They have been instrumental in bringing the opposition into being. The army chief General Paochinda, in particlular, and Newin Chidchob who switched sides from being Mr Thaksin’s most trustworthy lieutenants to form the new Democrat coalition. The horse-trading is now over and, even though it is still an “ugly” cabinet in many of its portfolios, we do now have a prime minister that has integrity and intelligence and is a man very well versed in economic matters.

Both Mr Abhisit and his finance minister, Mr Korn, attended Oxford University and have political degrees, with the finance minister having worked in the commercial world for JP Morgan. They are both heading up the economic team and have called for a Bt180bn rescue stimulus, especially targeted at tourism and other under-attack industries.

There is also the new government’s reconciliatory stance and is at least talking to the pro-Thaksin red-shirted supporters. There is now some hope that, with the police and military support for this government, 2009 will be a time of economic rather than political posturing to keep the country relatively safe from the financial turmoil.

Tourist numbers have of course fallen, but this is not just because of the airport seizure; it would be folly to suggest otherwise. Roadshows are to be held in Asian countries to stimulate growth in the tourism industry and at last, there is a glimmer of hope that, although attendant in hiatus and despite the ongoing protestations which the red-shirts see as a “silent coup” by the military, that there will be political normalisation, restoration of FDI, assistance to exporters and the unemployed, fiscal stimuli and healthier governance, 2009 may well be the turning point for Thailand.

Lets’ hope that no one ever again has to experience the reckless inconvenience to their holiday in Thailand for political gain that happened last month.

Thai tourism political tightrope and signs of recovery

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Using Phuket data as a gauge to Ko Chang’s tourist arrivals, an article from Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported at the weekend that, although tourism is certainly bullish, most hotels are only a few percentage points down on the previous year and that “now is the time for a cheap holiday in Thailand” as prices can be as low as half, with a raft of incentives being offered. Almost all of these cut-price bookings are being offered via the internet.

One Berliner said he was staying in the same room he rented last year but is now paying half rate, with a free breakfast thrown in; Kata Beach Resort, together with other operators, are running from 80%-90% occupancy; and the Dragon Art Media group said many of the bigger hotels are running at around 70% occupancy rather than the normal 90%-95%, with real discounting to start around January 10th.

So it’s not all doom and gloom for Thailand’s tourist industry, although the article did point out that some of the bigger, more expensive hotels, together with the Asian bulk-tour trade, have been hurt substantially.

As one long-time European resident succinctly remarked: “Where else in the world can you live very comfortably from between $15-$30 a day, walk to a pristine beach for a swim, enjoy the best massages the world has to offer, eat the healthiest food and be safe?”

Where indeed? It surely beats a dark, wet and miserable January in an inner city suburb in the West.

Bargain holidays in Thailand available via the internet

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On reading the newspapers yesterday one article in The Nation pointed out that tourists are making a comeback and that foreign shoppers are “trickling back” from their 40% absence during the airport closure to between 10%-20%, with average hotel occupancy rates up to 40%.

Contrast this with another story in the business sections lead with the headline “Tourism urgently needs proactive measures”. Thailand’s tourist industry is apparently bracing itself for a tough time in 2009 with tourist arrivals expected to drop 10% as travellers tighten their belts. The new tourist minister is pushing for the renovation of tourist atttractions and a series of roadshows, which is expected to cost around Bt10bn. Somehow, though, I think their endeavours are well-meaning but a bit skewed as they all seem to believe it was the airport closure that has stemmed the steady tide of passengers.

Does any of this add up to you? Maybe my maths isn’t what it used to be but if let’s say at this time of year hotel occupancy rates are usually 80% then a 10% drop would mean 72% occupancy, not that as officially quoted at 40%. And as for tough times ahead in 2009, a 10% reduction is quite mild.

Whatever these figures prove or disprove, the fact is quite plain that tourism is suffering everywhere in the world and I can’t quite imagine it’s as shallow as 10%. And when looking at Thai tourism’s diminishing numbers, “political instability” and “security matters” are being quoted as the prime reasons for the downturn. But surely, by far the biggest reason, now that both have been normalised, is job insecurity and lack of access to credit at home.

Am I missing something here or are the Thai tourist authorities anxiously out-predicting number theory?

Thai tourism, hazy percentages and an anxious tourist board

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Extracts from The Nation / The Guardian

According to The Nation newspaper on the first official day of work for the new government, it is struggling to shore up the country’s export and tourism trade, with the new commerce and tourism ministers searching for strategies to cope with the present downtrend. Tourists have yet to return after both of Bangkok’s airports were shut down by protesters late last month. That comes as no surprise.

Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silapa-archa said he would take quick steps to help the tourism industry recover in the remaining months of the high season. The industry, which generates 6-8 per cent of GDP, was left shaken by the shutdown of Bangkok airports in late November, the first month of the peak tourism season, which usually runs until March of the following year.

Chumpol said he would invite former tourism minister Weerasak Kowsurat to advise him in implementing measures to restore confidence in the industry. For example, the Tourism Authority of Thailand and other agencies should form special sales and marketing teams to focus on specific tourist markets, in order to help promote the return of foreign visitors, he said.

Many tourism and related businesses have already sought tax relief and other assistance from the government, because they were hit hard by the airport suspensions, leaving many hotels nearly empty. Sukosol said the prime minister had to convince the international media that Thailand was undergoing national reconciliation and stabilising its political and economic systems. Without such a message getting across, it will be difficult to lure back foreign travellers, she said.

Whilst this may be the Thai view, I would hazard a guess that tourism receipts will be well down anyway, irrespective of the airport closures.

Let’s just take a few words from The Guardian website: There were hordes of shoppers on Regent Street, with people reduced to the pace of shuffling zombies around Oxford Circus. Red signs shouting sale could be seen in every shop window, from 20% off everything in Ted Baker to up to 50% discounts in H&M. With 50% discounts in Armani Exchange and similar cuts in Gap, Hobbs and Boss, there was no lack of bargains in Regent Street.

I expect that, post Christmas, there’s not going to be much left to travel with but who knows.

Rescue strategy for Thai tourism

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By The Nation

Tourism Authority of Thailand on Monday issued an apology to tourists having been affected by the recent Bangkok airports closure.

Phornsiri Manoharn, governor of Tourism Authority of Thailand, said in the apology statement “The recent closure of Bangkok’s two airports was an unforeseen and unpredictable event never experienced before in Thailand. We sympathise with all of you who were affected and the distress it caused.

“In realising your plight, the various related agencies of the Thai tourism industry did everything possible to alleviate the inconvenience incurred upon visitors. Hundreds of people across the spectrum of the Thai travel and tourism industry worked round-the-clock to help the thousands of tourists seeking to be reunited with their families and friends.

“With regards to the efforts of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and together with entire private sector, we provided accommodation and meals, as well as facilitated tourists as much as possible. Some emergency flights were also operated from other airports, and city terminals were established for tourists to undergo early check-in procedures. Once the all-clear was declared, the entire tourism industry moved expeditiously and urgently to get the airport open again.

“We hope that you have reached home safely and that your confidence and trust in Thailand as a destination has not been affected, and that we will have many more opportunities to welcome you again in our country.

“Today, I am happy to inform that the Thai travel and tourism industry is back to normal. Thailand is and continues to be a wonderfully diverse tourism destination with great beaches, savory, food, health and wellness centers, luxury accommodation, unspoiled nature, and of course warm and friendly smiles.

“So with all of this and much more, we look forward to seeing you in Amazing Thailand soon.”

TAT apologises to tourists

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US secretary of state Rice and British ambassador congratulate PM

By The Nation / Bangkok Post

US State Secretary Condoleeza Rice has congratulated the Asean chair, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the entry into force of the Asean Charter. The letter signed December 15 was addressed to him when he was elected as Thailand’s 27the prime minister by the Parliament.

Rice said that the US welcomes this important milestone in the development and integration of Southeast Asia and applauds the Charter’s focus on respect for human rights and good governance. “We hope that all ASEAN citizens enjoy peace, stability, prosperity, and freedom,” Rice said adding that the United States looks forward to working closely with its ASEAN friends.

She also expressed her confidence that together the US and Asean will be able to address successfully the regional and global challenges that affect them.

On Friday, Mr Abhisit and Mr Quayle, the British ambassador, discussed four main issues, including foreigners’ confidence in the country, promotion of reconciliation, security in international airports, and a free enterprise economic system. Mr Quayle said Mr Abhisit has the qualifications to administer the country, particularly in the fields of economy and foreign affairs.

The ambassador also gave the 44-year-old premier a black and white striped shirt of Newcastle with number 27 on the back as he was born in Newcastle and is a fan of Newcastle United football club.

US and Britain congratulate Thai PM

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Promotions are expected over the next few months, when hotels are trying to fill their guestrooms. Yesterday, 16 boutique hotels covering several destinations joined hands to quote a single price. Thai Airways International also offered special deals to provincial destinations to encourage travel. And regular passengers know that these fares are lower than normal rates.

On Monday, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) also presented its new tourism ambassador to promote the latest “Mai Pen Rai Thailand” campaign.

You’ve probably never heard of him but the famous Thai pop singer Thongchai “Bird” McIntyre, now 50, has been chosen to help with their campaign. Probably his best-known song among Thais is Om Pra Ma Pood (meaning I wouldn’t believe you if you swore on my Buddah/A wolf in sheep’s clothing like you), which for those of you wondering about the man’s talent can be seen on YouTube at http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=fYbwo2oop9o. It’s my favourite anyway.

Some criticised the choice of singer as not attractive, given that the yesteryear star was not selling like hot cakes like before (judging from the popularity of his latest songs). Yet at 50, the crooner is much more popular among Thais than many younger stars who appeal only to specific groups.

Overall, he seems to be a good choice for the campaign, designed to encourage more Thais to travel in the absence of international visitors.

Indeed, the TAT will pay him handsomely for the one-year deal. While planning to spend Bt62 million to promote the campaign, Bt20 million, or about a third of that amount is going to Thongchai.

If you’re a fan of Thai popular music, he may be just the man to change your minds and bring you back to the Land of Smiles. I’d give Om Pra a listen to before you travel, though, to see what you’ll be getting from TAT in the new year.

Thongchai “Bird” McIntyre in bid to boost domestic tourism

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Hotels in Thailand are under pressure to offer 20-30% discounts as travel operators try to lure back foreign tourists who fled the country after the recent shutdown of Bangkok’s airports.

The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) said Phuket hotels were being urged to slash rates by 20-30% and Bangkok hotels by 15-20%. So when you look at the Ko Chang booking information page, please take the price as an indicator rather than the real amount being charged. The real amount will be displayed on the booking page itself.

Nothing is ever certain in this country and nothing could be truer of that than Thai politics. However, for the first time since I arrived here six years ago the current prime minister comes across as a man of genuine integrity who pledged yesterday to reach out to people across the social and political divide and confirmed that his premiership will be one of reconciliation and promised to bring an end to the politics of division, saying: “I would like to correct the failed political system by relying on justice and the rule of law. Now our country needs unity.”

Unity it does need but his task will be full of potholes and he will have to act as a very wily operator to stave off the shark-infested waters of gutter politics that still has its place in parliament.

Abhisit pledged to tackle economic problems urgently and to follow up popular projects started by previous administrations such as cheap medical care and village funds. His government would try to create jobs for the urban poor, invest in infrastructure and prop up farm prices hit hard by the economic downturn. He will seek to lay down the foundation of Thailand’s future growth through improvements in education.

The British media has paid special attention to the election of Thailand’s latest prime minister because he was born and educated in England. The Daily Mail said that Thailand’s new PM was an Oxford graduate and former classmate of Boris Johnson, the Lord Mayor of London. Johnson remarked, “He was an exact contemporary of mine at school and is a seriously clever fellow. I’m sure he’s going to do great things in Thailand.” But even though as a young man he wanted to be a striker for Newcastle United, I doubt if the Abhisit be using Geordie phrases such as “Haadyergob ye patterskite” (please stop talking nonsense, old chum).

Andrew Sparrow noted in his Guardian Blog “Old Etonian becomes prime minister” that Abhisit was a contemporary of Boris Johnson at Eton, “and a year ahead of David Cameron”, leader of the opposition Conservative Party. “I’m sure it’s an omen,” a Tory spokesman was quoted saying. And The Times Online also noted Thailand now had a “British-born” prime minister.

Speaking in English to reach out to international correspondents, investors and tourists, he said: “I know that for the past two to three years the pictures and the images that you’ve seen of Thailand have not been positive, but I also know that there are people all over the world who know Thailand better, as friends, as partners, as visitors. I am sure they recall Thailand as a land of smiles, land of opportunities, and land of the free. I know that many of you are still concerned about the events in the past particularly the closure of the airports. I would like to tell you that the Thai people regret that those incidents had to happen and we will make sure that those are things of the past. They will never happen again.

Fingers crossed for the ‘Geordie PM’ of Thailand.

Hotels pressed to offer big discounts as ‘Geordie PM’ sworn in

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King Bhumibol Adulyadej gave his endorsement for Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to become prime minister on Wednesday with Thai television showing footage of the king signing the notice of appointment presented to him by Parliament Speaker.

Thailand’s newly elected Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said he was sorry for the damage done to the country by the week-long occupation of Bangkok’s two airports on the same day as London Mayor Boris Johnson paid tribute to him by saying: “Mark [his English nickname] is a man of intense integrity and high intellectual gifts.”

Abhisit told Thai tourism industry representatives, two days after parliament elected him Thailand’s 27th prime minister: “We regret the incident and will not allow it to happen again. I am fully aware that the tourism sector was hit hard and it had an unreasonable loss of revenue, therefore I will create national unity and national reconciliation.”

Hotel occupancy has plummeted after tourists were scared off by television images of trapped travellers sleeping on baggage trolleys and PAD guards with wooden stakes stationed at the airports.

London Mayor pays tribute to Thai PM-elect as Abhisit says he’s sorry for damage done to country

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Abhisit Vejjajiva was appointed yesterday as the youngest prime minister Thailand has had for more than 60 years, perhaps the most statesmanlike and articulate politician Thailand has ever had. He is the clean face of Thai politics and untainted by corruption or conflicts of interest.

His most difficult challenge is to calm the intense political environment he inherits. Last month the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) staged what was at best seen as economic sabotage by the occupation of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport, and at worse an act of “terrorism” as their opponents claim.

But the real challenge Mr Abhisit faces is to rebuild confidence in the country, with an economy already starting to suffer from the affects of the global meltdown. This is especially true for the tourism sector, that has been dealt a massive blow after the actions of the PAD, which has cost the country several billions of dollars. It also inflicted a massive run on tourist confidence at a time when it can afford it least. The deteriorating global economic climate is escalating with some economists predicting that more than a million Thai jobs are expected to be lost next year.

One of the more encouraging signs, though, are that the Democrat party has two ministers highly equipped to handle the economy: the key economic portfolios are going to Mr Abhisit, who has an MA in Economics from Oxford university and Korn Chatikavanij, who also graduated with honours from Oxford where he studied politics, philosophy and economics (PPE). He brings a wealth of commercial and financial experience with him, having worked with the likes of JP Morgan. He left the financial sector in 2004 to run for office as a member of parliament.

But even with fresh faces, Mr Abhisit’s coalition partners will make it hard for him to drive through much-needed policies. Mr Abhisit’s real test will be gauged by whether or not he can bring about a return to something like “normal government” and bring an end the turmoil on the streets. Then he needs to seriously tackle Thailand’s image abroad, explaining to the world the hidden complexities of the Thai political world and revive the sagging tourist industry from further knocks.

New Thai PM needs nerves of steel

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