Koh Chang

Friday May 29th 2009, 2:44 pm
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Chauncey Gardiner, played by Peter Sellers in the film Being There, was based on a book by Jerzy Kosinski and directed by Hal Ashby.

Chauncey is a gardener who, on the death of his employer, is forced out on to the streets of Washington. By chance, he becomes a celebrity and appears on television talkshows for using gardening metaphors that people, including the president, assume relates to the economy. Some people are now using the same Chaunceyisms such as “we are out of the woods” and can now see the “green shoots of recovery”.

Recently, one of British PM Gordon Brown’s most trusted ministers, Lady Vadera, was under fire after saying that she also could see a few “green shoots” of economic recovery at a time when Barclays announced that it was to cut 2,100 UK jobs, Jaguar Land Rover said it was losing 450 staff and administrators of the music chain Zavvi announced that it would close a further 18 stores, with the loss of 353 jobs.

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, said: “Baroness Vadera is clearly living in a parallel universe if she thinks the economy is beginning to recover.” Or maybe she was merely using a vogueish Chaunceyism?

Meanwhile, here in Thailand…

Source: The Nation

Although some indicators suggest the worst might be over for the Thai economy, a sustainable turnaround will depend on when a global economic recovery starts to take root – a matter about which there is still great uncertainty – a senior Finance Ministry official said yesterday.

The pace of economic contraction decelerated last month following a sharp year-on-year fall of 7.1 per cent in the first quarter, said Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.

He pointed to the slower rate of contraction in the Industrial Production Index, which fell by 12.8 per cent year on year in April, against March’s drop of 17.7 per cent.

After seasonal adjustment, the April index expanded by 5.7 per cent from the month before, resulting in three consecutive months of month-on-month expansion, following 2.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent and in February and March, respectively.

Rising exports of food and chemical products to Asia, particularly to China and India, contributed to the increase in production, Somchai added.

Production of food items like tuna, frozen chicken and shrimp rose by 2.4 per cent last month, following a 0.7-per-cent rise in March. Production of chemicals fell by 0.1 per cent, compared with a drop of 1.7 per cent in March.

Production of electrical home appliances contracted 30.1 per cent, against a fall of 40.5 per cent in March. Production of electronics items also fell at a slower pace, by 4.2 per cent against 7.5 per cent in March.

The increase in production had been caused by a running down of inventories in the global market, resulting in importers beginning to place more orders with Thailand’s manufacturing sector.

“However, we don’t know whether this initial recovery will sustain itself, as it will depend on world economic conditions,” said Somchai.

If the current signs of a global economic recovery are sustained, then it would also pull the Thai economy out of recession, he said.

The local economy has entered recession after two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction. Gross domestic product in last year’s fourth quarter shrank 6.1 per cent from the previous quarter, while GDP in the first quarter of this year contracted 1.9 per cent from the previous three months.

Somchai said private investment and consumption were still very weak last month. Value-added tax receipts – a key consumption indicator – fell by 17.7 per cent year on year, against a drop of 17.5 per cent in March.

Taxes collected from home and other property sales dropped by 1.7 per cent, indicating falling private investment in the real-estate sector. Imports of machinery were down by 23.3 per cent last month, marking the fifth straight month they had fallen.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was 1.9 per cent in March, the same as the month before.

Somchai suggested the government should spend more money to boost growth. Implementation of the first phase of the second stimulus package is crucial, he said, referring to the government’s currently stalled executive decree for raising Bt400 billion in additional funding.

Political stability is also crucial if there is to be an economy recovery, while the baht must also remain competitive, he said.

“If these conditions are met, economic growth will be positive in the fourth quarter,” he added.

Green shoots for the Thai economy?

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Asia-Pacific tourism forecast for 5-10% slump

Thursday May 28th 2009, 2:52 pm
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Source: Bangkok Post

The Asia-Pacific tourism industry will contract by 5-10% this year due to the combined impact of the world economic crisis and the outbreak of H1N1 influenza, according to the global reservations specialist Amadeus.

David Brett, the president of Amadeus Asia-Pacific, said economic problems would dent tourist confidence, particularly among Europeans, and that H1N1 was a big concern for tourism around the world.

But the company is confident it can gain market share in the region as it has continuously invested in IT and research and development for operators including airlines, hotels, and travel agents.

Amadeus expects its market share in Asia-Pacific to grow by two percentage points to around 32% this year. Its share in Thailand is much higher at 76%.

In the first quarter of 2009, Amadeus Asia-Pacific accounted for 40% of the region’s airline and hotel bookings. Last year, the travel bookings through Amadeus worldwide fell by 4% while the overall global distribution system (GDS) market contracted by 7%.

Thailand, said Mr Brett, is one of Asia-Pacific’s key markets. Against the backdrop of the financial crisis and political unrest, tourist arrivals to the country fell only 1% to 14.3 million last year.

“Our key partnerships with major Thai travel players such as Thai Airways and Centara Hotels help us grow. We continue to see growth opportunities here as it becomes a more mature market with a stronger influence on the global tourism industry,” he said.

Travellers to Thailand will prefer fewer, shorter and cheaper trips and domestic travel by car will be more popular. Travel agents will be concerned about payment, so online bookings could grow.

As well, he said, airlines would cut costs to maximise revenues and fine-tune online distribution to deal with a plunge in tourists this year. Hotels will offer and cross-sell value packages and recognise the importance of the internet.

Mr Brett said that while tourism in the region was poor this year, the industry had been volatile since 9/11 in 2001.

“With many negative factors, the tourism industry has been changing. For example, you will see airline consolidations and alliances to save costs while low-cost carriers and online booking are growing,” he said.

“Intra-Asia travel will rise and integrated IT systems and mobile innovations are important things for people and businesses.”

Asia-Pacific tourism forecast for 5-10% slump

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People’s Alliance for Democracy turning group towards political mainstream

Wednesday May 27th 2009, 2:36 pm
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Source: Bangkok Post

The People’s Alliance for Democracy has taken the right step in turning the group towards the political mainstream. The response by members of the PAD has proved that the hesitation of the founder and core leaders was misplaced.

There is no telling just yet how the new political party will do when it takes its “new politics” up against others in a national election. But the group had grown too much in size and scope to stagnate as nothing more than a gaggle of street demonstrators.

In fact, you might say that the easy work is done. Last year’s continuous and tumultuous 193-day protest gave the group national and even international recognition. The demonstration leaders became national figures through their daily appearances on television, more familiar to the public than many professional politicians. Its activities throughout the provinces also built local leadership as well as grassroots support.

Now the task gets harder. Leave aside the organisational and administrative tasks necessary to register and legitimise the new party. The real chances of its success lie in the city and provincial districts, and in the villages. The PAD party will be starting its political battle with enthusiasm and high hopes. But it will have to contend with experienced and tenacious political organisers at all levels who have no intention of yielding power to the yellow-clad newcomers.

The new party seems certain to provide political controversy right from the start. The choice of a national leader is important to the image of the new party, and a high-profile few already seem to want to lead the PAD party _ before it even has a name. Sondhi Limthongkul, arguably the founder and chief spirit of the PAD protesters, has declared bankruptcy in the past, and may be ineligible to be an MP or prime minister.

Media reports speculated that Rangsit University rector Arthit Urairat, a politician in the past, might contest the job. PAD ideologue Suriyasai Katasila favours a decentralised party, with powerful branches and a weaker core.

However it proceeds, the public should welcome a serious movement on the political scene. The yellow shirts are clearly a force to be reckoned with, and have fresh ideas to bring to the fore. As a protest group, however, it was hard to take the ideas or actions of the group seriously.

There were more than a few times last year when the PAD and its supporters went far over the line of both legality and acceptable behaviour. The constant blocking of Bangkok’s streets was troubling, and the closure of the city’s airports was not only illegal but a serious blow to the country’s economy.

One must hope that the legal cases against the PAD leaders will take their course through the justice system.

At the same time, it is clear that the rank-and-file membership of the PAD has serious ideas about the future of this country. They deserve to be heard. Their ideas can only be legitimate if they are put to the test of public opinion.

Now voters will get a chance to pass judgement on the PAD’s political platform.The party does not yet have an official name. “Thien Haeng Tham” (Candle of Dhamma), “New Politics” and the current “People’s Alliance for Democracy” have been put forward.

But the PAD’s new party does have its first policy plank: it opposes any amendments to the constitution. That is certainly a controversial start. That is how democracy works: voters watch and listen, then give their verdict.

People’s Alliance for Democracy turning group towards political mainstream

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Thai economy in recession

Tuesday May 26th 2009, 3:16 pm
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Source: The Nation

The economy contracted 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year, its worst year-on-year performance since the 1997 economic crisis, amid concern that worse is still to come.

The economy is already in technical recession after seeing quarter-on-quarter contractions for two consecutive quarters. It saw a 1.9-per-cent contraction in the first quarter, which was an improvement over the shrinkage of 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) revised downward its forecast for the year to a contraction of 2.5-3.5 per cent, from its previous forecast of between zero growth and minus 1 per cent.

However, the think-tank’s secretary-general, Ampon Kittiampon, expressed concern that the economy could fall even more steeply than predicted if the second phase of the government’s Bt1.56-trillion stimulus package is not implemented in October because of political instability.

This would delay private investment, which is expected to pick up in the first quarter of next year. Moreover, the global economic recovery and fluctuation of oil prices and foreign exchange have become crucial factors in the Kingdom’s economy, he said.

“The tardiness in public investment would have a tremendous influence on economic recovery … The key is the government must accelerate its mega-projects in a bid to build up business confidence and lead to private investment,” said Ampon.

Household spending in the first quarter shrank 2.1 per cent, the worst contraction since the 1997 crisis, as the real sector slashed production capacity following the global recession, he said.

The Kingdom needs political stability for the rest of the year to enable the government to carry forward its economic policies.

The economy could bottom out in the first quarter, or see a slower pace of contraction in the current quarter if there are no further events such as the April violence. The political stalemate could worsen the economic situation, however.

The Kingdom has enough to get by if there is a contraction of 3 per cent this year, with nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Bt8.5 trillion, higher than the Bt5 trillion achieved in 1997.

But the size of the economy cannot facilitate much-needed social and infrastructure projects like energy and public health in the future, or absorb new graduates, said Ampon.

Deputy Prime Minister Korbsak Sabhavasu acknowledged that economic growth in the second quarter would be worrisome, due to the political unrest in April.

He said he was not surprised by the big contraction in GDP in the first three months this year, as the government’s first stimulus package had started only in early April.

Meanwhile, public debt is on the rise as the government and state-owned enterprises borrow more.

Pongpanu Svetarundra, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office, yesterday said that as of the end of March, public debt had risen to Bt3.69 trillion, or equivalent to 40.97 per cent of GDP. This compares with the February figures of Bt3.6 trillion and 40 per cent of GDP.

In the first seven months of the current fiscal year, the government borrowed Bt232.69 billion in the domestic market, while state enterprises borrowed Bt144.2 billion.

Thai economy in recession

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Japanese to take long time to reconsider investment plans in Thailand

Monday May 25th 2009, 1:35 pm
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Source: Bangkok Post

Investors from Japan, the largest foreign investor in Thailand, are likely to take a long while to reconsider their investment plans here, according to the new president of Japanese Chamber of Commerce (JCC).

Yo Jitsukata believes the wide gap between demand and production capacity means further investment to add capacity is not needed in the near future.

But Mr Jitsukata, who recently succeeded Fukujiro Yamabe in late April, believes that the global economy is recovering.

“I believe the bad news in the manufacturing sector has bottomed out as inventories have been reduced to the level where production can resume again. I expect the recovery signs to be clearer in the latter half of the year,” said Mr Jitsukata.

“But we cannot expect to see production running at the same levels as before the crisis hit us. If manufacturing capacity were running at 100% as it was prior to the crisis, by the latter half of this year capacity utilisation should be at about 60-70%,” Mr Jitsukata said.

He added that the increasing commodity demand in China, helped by government stimulus spending, had recently driven the prices of commodities up, together with rebounds in stock markets across the world.

The JCC president said that Thailand’s main export products to Japan such as food and textiles remain unaffected by the global economic crisis. However, given the severe impact the global slowdown has had on Japan, Thailand still cannot put much hope on investment inflows from his country.

“Many Japanese companies have faced severe losses in business during the crisis and may want to keep cash in hand rather than start spending money on investment soon,” he said.

Investment inflows from Japan would only resume when the gap between demand and capacity is narrower.

However, he reaffirmed that Thailand was still Japanese investors’ most favoured destination, because of the strong bonds established by Japanese businesses in the country.

Mr Jitsukata also praised the current government’s performance, saying that it listened to the opinions of industry and showed decisive direction.

He also supports the government’s plan to borrow 400 billion baht for further economic stimulus spending. “In the current situation where private investment is still limited, the plan to borrow 400 billion baht will be necessary to boost local consumption and improve business sentiment,” added Mr Jitsukata.

“The government spending may boost local economy, but I don’t know if it will be enough.”

In the first quarter of this year, the value of Japanese investments seeking privileges through the Board of Investment declined 35.3% to 8.785 billion baht, compared with 13.59 billion in the same period last year.

Japanese to take long time to reconsider investment plans in Thailand

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World Tourism in the Face of the Global Economic Crisis and Influenza Threat

Friday May 22nd 2009, 3:38 pm
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Source: World Tourism Organization

International tourism demand has deteriorated further due to the impact of the global economic recession. International tourist arrivals declined at a rate of 8% between January and February this year, leaving the overall volume at the same level as recorded in 2007. At the same time, influenza A(H1N1) is starting to affect the sector. Its impact is being closely monitored by UNWTO in close collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO). UNWTO follows the WHO’s advice as it is the leading UN agency in matters relating to health. WHO does not recommend travel restrictions at this point.

Preliminary UNWTO figures for the first months of 2009 indicate a continuation of the negative growth already experienced in the second half of 2008. Destinations all around the world have suffered from a decrease in demand in major source markets. With the exception of Africa and both Central and South America, who all posted positive results in the range of 3-5%. So far, Northern, Southern and Mediterranean Europe, North-East Asia, South Asia and the Middle East are amongst the most affected sub-regions.

In this context, UNWTO expects international tourism to decline between 2% and 3% in 2009.

Many countries are already developing stimulus measures within their fiscal and monetary packages to mitigate the effects of the crisis on tourism, realizing that the sector can be a key driver of economic recovery. Some destinations are reducing taxes and improving travel facilitation, recognizing that it is now crucial to remove all obstacles to tourism, especially taxation and over regulation. Others have developed financial systems to support tourism enterprises, maintain/increase employment in the sector and develop infrastructure. UNWTO encourages others to follow suit.

Secretary-General ad interim Taleb Rifai stressed that “One of the major challenges amidst the current crisis is the imperative of not losing sight of the longer-term challenges of poverty alleviation, employment and climate change”.

UNWTO response

Historically, tourism has demonstrated remarkable resilience and has emerged from past crises stronger and healthier. The current economic juncture, however, might be different. This crisis is truly global and its parameters are still in many ways unclear.

Against this background, UNWTO has increased its efforts to provide its Members with the necessary support on a consistent basis in order to endure these challenging times:
- Resilience: the Tourism Resilience Committee (TRC) provides a framework for better market analysis, collaboration on responses and medium-term policymaking.
- Stimulus: UNWTO urges governments to put tourism at the core of their stimulus packages – jobs and trade are engendered through a strong tourism sector, as well as business and consumer confidence in travel which can play a big part in economic recovery.
- Green Economy: tourism must be placed at the forefront of the transformation towards the Green Economy; contributing with carbon-clean operations, jobs in environmental management and energy-efficient constructions.

UNWTO’s Roadmap for Recovery will lead to a unique positioning of the sector with respect to the economic crisis, its role in the stimulus programme , in the recovery, future sustainability and competitiveness of tourism.

Influenza preparedness

Adding to the consumer and business uncertainty and the loss of confidence, the potential Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has created an increasing degree of confusion around the issue of whether it is safe to travel. UNWTO has been very active in pressing for a clear WHO position and is working closely with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure a balanced decision making process.

Within the UN system, UNWTO has a direct line to express the interests of tourism and travel. At this stage, the extent of the spread, sustainability and the complete health implications of the virus remain uncertain. Given the increased public awareness, engagement and the resulting elevated concern, calls for the urgent need for response must be viewed in context – awareness is key, not abrupt and uninformed reactions.

Until now, WHO has seen no reason to close borders or restrict travel. This stance is supported by similar past experiences, which provide no evidence that doing so would stop the spread of the virus. Furthermore, the economic cost would be enormous. WHO goes further and urges states to resist unilateral action and to consult with them before undertaking any such initiative.

UNWTO strongly supports this position and is prepared to face this kind of situation. The Organization has formed a dedicated Risk and Crisis Management Section (RCM), established influenza contacts in every Member State, launched regional simulation exercises, created the Tourism Emergency Response Network (TERN) with some 20 peak industry organizations and launched sos.travel as a portal for emergency information for the industry and travellers. In addition UNWTO is continuing to issue guidance material.

World Tourism in the Face of the Global Economic Crisis and Influenza Threat

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Gloomy outlook for Phuket tourism industry

Thursday May 21st 2009, 7:31 pm
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Source: The Nation

The Phuket Tourism Association has forecast that hotels in the province would see occupancy rates as low as 25-30 per cent, compared to 60 per cent in the low season last year, citing a number of negative factors.

Phurit Maswongsa, the association’s vice president for marketing, said the spread of the type-A(H1N1)flu virus was one of the main problems hitting the industry.

“Phuket is already in the low [holiday] season, but occupancy rates will fall by about 30 per cent to remain at between 30-35 per cent,” Phurit said.

He added revenues for operators in Phuket would be down 50 per cent compared to last year.

Only tourists from Australia, the Middle East and India are likely to be visiting the island.

He said promotional offers were not enough to tempt tourists back to Thailand as they were trying to avoid the possibility of catching the flu and were also concerned about political instability.

Moreover, occupancy rates in the high season are expected to be down 20 per cent, to between 50-60 per cent.

Laguna Resorts and Hotels forecasts the average occupancy rate at its Laguna Phuket property would be down 20-25 per cent in the second and third quarters of this year.

The average occupancy rate at the region’s largest resort complex fell 27 per cent in the first quarter, to 65 per cent because people cancelled bookings to Phuket following the closure of Bangkok airport in November.

Thailand’s political instability and the global economic crisis are key factors for the downturn and this has been exacerbated by the spread of the flu virus.

Debbie Dionysius, Laguna’s assistant vice president for destination marketing, said it had offered 100,000 free rooms earlier this year so occupancy rates were pretty high in January to March. However, revenue was down.

Dionysius expected to see an improvement by the fourth quarter year as tourists should hopefully be returning to Thailand.

“We have seen some positive signs such as the economy picking up,” she said.

Dusit Thani Laguna recorded the best performance in terms of revenue in 2007-2008 while Banyan Tree has recorded the highest occupancy rate over the last two years.

The hotel operator is trying to attract more tourists to the island by adding more activities and implementing new marketing strategies.

An upcoming event is the fourth Laguna Phuket International Marathon, which is scheduled for June 14. The event is expected to draw 4,000 runners from overseas and Thais. The event is also hoped to generate revenues of around Bt30 million for the province.

According to Dionysius, Laguna Phuket is working with international schools in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore to organise activities and camping trips. The scheme will run from June to September.

Moreover, the group will try to attract more customers from China where it has Banyan Tree offices in Beijing and Shanghai. Laguna expects visitors from China to increase from 5 per cent this year to 15-20 per cent over the next few years.

Gloomy outlook for Phuket tourism industry

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Huge fall in Chinese and Japanese visitors to Thailand due to flu

Wednesday May 20th 2009, 3:27 pm
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Source: The Nation

The number of Chinese and Japanese visitors to Thailand is expected to drop sharply in coming months, due to the spread of the type-A (H1N1) flu virus.

The Thai-Chinese Tourism Association (TCTA) projects that tourist arrivals from China will plunge by 600,000 over the next six months, due to stricter travel requirements imposed by Beijing.

The Thai-Japan Tourist Association (TJTA) said Japanese arrivals would likely fall by about 600,000 in the second half.

The only types of visitors from these countries are individual tourists and businessmen, said the associations.

TJTA president Anake Srichevachart said the Japanese government was also discouraging its citizens from travelling within Japan, due to fears the domestic outbreak, which has currently affected mainly Osaka and Kobe, will spread to other parts of the country.

The official number of people infected with the H1N1 flu virus in Japan rose to 178 yesterday. The authorities reacted by closing more than 4,000 schools, colleges and kindergartens for the rest of the week, to slow the spread.

TJTA members will meet tomorrow to seek remedial measures in the face of the expected sharp fall in Japanese arrivals.

“The situation is now worse than [what happened in the wake of] the rioting here in April as far as Japanese tourist numbers are concerned,” said Anake.

TCTA president Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn said Thailand’s tourism had been immediately affected, as tour firms in China are barred from bringing tourists out of the country. One of the Chinese authorities’ new policies in the wake of the H1N1 scare is to encourage domestic travel, which will mean the number of tourists visiting Thailand could show negative growth this year, he said.

“The Chinese government is very serious [about containment]. If a passenger on a plane shows flu symptoms, all the other passengers could be quarantined,” said Sisdivachr, adding that if the situation were not resolved soon, the impact on tourism could still be felt a year from now.

The number of Western tourists – mainly from the UK, Germany, Scandinavia, the US and Canada, but also from Eastern Europe – is also expected to drop in the coming months, said Anake.

Both Anake and Sisdivachr said the only thing that could put an end to the fear factor was the World Health Organisation coming up with an effective vaccine and medication to treat this flu strain.

The Associa-tion of Thai Travel Agents recently said the number of international arrivals had drop-ped by 50 per cent year on year in the first four months, due to negative factors like the Bangkok airport closures late in 2008 and the Songkran riots.

The flu outbreak has sparked new fears of global travel. Thailand has seen a 10-per-cent drop in flight frequency this year, due to the flu, the economic crisis and last year’s airport closures, said Somchai Thean-anant, president of Aeronautical Radio of Thailand, which provides aviation communications at airports.

The company’s revenue has fallen by Bt500 million a month, and its expected full-year income could well be below expenses for the first time. Somchai said if revenue were to match expenses, flight frequency must rise 5 per cent from last year’s level.

In a bid to stimulate tourism, the Thai Travel Agents Associa-tion, Amadeus and Krungthai Card will jointly host a travel fair called “Asean+3″ in Bangkok from May 28-31.

Huge fall in Chinese and Japanese visitors to Thailand due to flu

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Japanese subject to stringent flu screening at Thai Airports

Tuesday May 19th 2009, 1:36 pm
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Source: The Nation

Japanese travellers are now subject to tight screening at Thai airports under a Public Health Ministry directive issued yesterday, while the situation in Japan is putting pressure on the World Health Organisation to declare swine flu a pandemic.

Also included on the alert list is anyone flying either directly from Japan or in transit from a Japanese airport, said ministry spokesman Suphan Srithamma.

He said the ministry would soon decide whether to include Japan on a country-based watch list that now consists of the US, the UK, Spain and Canada, along with Mexico, where the disease originated.

This follows reports that non-travellers in Japan have contracted the type-A (H1N1) influenza virus.

In Thailand, eight people suspected of catching the virus are under ministry care after two French nationals were removed from the alert list after lab results showed they had seasonal flu.

John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, yesterday said the global spread of type A (H1N1) could have “notable effects” on the world economy.

The risks from the new type of flu “are hard to predict, as it is unknown, as well as its spread and its mortality”.

“Hopefully, the impact will turn out to be quite modest and contained. But in the wake of the avian-flu threat a few years ago, very extensive contingency plans were put in place regarding, for example, operations of the financial sector,” he said.

As for the global economic downturn, it is “far from over”, he said in a speech in Bangkok, adding that many Asian nations had room to cut interest rates further to spur a recovery in their economies.

The WHO’s annual assembly opened in Geneva, Switzerland, yesterday under pressure to declare the new flu a pandemic as the number of cases in Japan soared and a New York teacher died from the virus.

Japan shuttered more than 2,000 schools and kindergartens after it confirmed swine-flu cases had reached 129, with authorities warning the real number of infections from the type-A (H1N1) virus could already be in the hundreds.

Officials within the UN organisation said 8,829 people had been infected with the new virus so far.

That figure is rising rapidly, increasing the likelihood the WHO will raise its pandemic alert to the maximum level of six.

It is already at level five, indicating a pandemic is imminent.

Japanese subject to stringent flu screening at Thai Airports

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New research brings climate change threat home to Thailand

Monday May 18th 2009, 12:37 pm
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Source: The Nation

In the last few weeks, a flurry of reports has painted a much more dismal picture of the probable impact of climate change on Thailand.

Two years ago, the report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change created shockwaves in the Western world, but hardly lifted a single eyebrow in Thailand. Partly that was because the report suggested Thailand would not be affected as badly as many other parts of the world.

Global warming would happen quicker nearer the poles rather than the equator, and over big landmasses rather than by the sea. The Northeast might get a bit hotter, but generally Thailand would get warm slower than elsewhere. Similarly, while much of the world was set to get drier, Thailand also seemed to escape the worst.

But we can now see that these benign conclusions were a trick of the data. Most of the research and modelling had concentrated on the temperate regions. The relatively benign view of areas like Southeast Asia was a result of ignorance. That ignorance is rapidly being dissipated. Scientists have been peering harder at the local data, and constructing models of the future that concentrate on the tropical and subtropical zones.

It’s been getting hotter lately, and in the future it’s going to get hotter still.

The average temperature in Southeast Asia has risen by 0.1 degree Celsius to 0.3 degree each decade over the past half-century. The trend has accelerated recently. In Thailand, since 1951, the average minimum temperature has risen by 1.35 degrees and the average maximum by 0.35 degree.

In the near future, this acceleration is probably going to increase. According to models developed locally, the mean daily maximum temperature in Thailand will increase by 2-4 degrees by 2070. While in the recent past, the greatest warming has been during the cool season, in the future it will happen in the hot season too. There will be more heat waves, and fewer cool days.

Crazier Weather

That must sound bad for anyone who can recall the baking days before the recent rains. But it’s bad in many other ways too. When the temperature rises by 1 degree, rice yields drop by a tenth. Many other crops suffer the same way. The impact will be severest in the Northeast where jasmine rice grows.

The picture on rainfall is also pretty dismal. Over the past decades, average annual rainfall hasn’t changed very much, but the variation from year to year, and place to place, has become more extreme.

Dry years are drier, wet years are wetter. Some regions are swamped while others are scorched. Tropical storms have become more intense, though not more frequent.

This trend is also set to intensify. Overall the models suggest that average rainfall will decline in the near future, but then begin to pick up. More strikingly they predict that the variation from year to year and place to place will become more erratic. Storms will increase in frequency and intensity. That means more floods and more droughts.

Forest fires have already become a bigger problem. In dry forest areas, they used to occur once a year, and now often occur twice. In moist and evergreen forests, which used to be virtually fire-free, they are becoming more common. The haze over Chiang Mai in the later part of the cool season has become an annual event. Minimising deliberate burning of forests has not helped much because the underlying cause is natural.

Landslides and mudslides are also becoming more common. In the past they were mostly confined to the South with its steep mountainsides and sharp monsoon rains. Over the last decade they have become annual events in the North as well.

Coastal Encroachment

The picture on sea levels is also becoming clearer and more disturbing. Until recently, some Thai scientists argued that local sea levels were not rising, unlike the rest of the world. The new data show that the sea level in Southeast Asia has risen at a rate of 1-3 millimetres a year over the past half-century.

This trend is set to continue, but there is great disagreement over the rate. At a minimum, the sea will be 40 centimetres higher than it is now by the end of this century, but that could rise to a metre or more depending on the melting of ice sheets and glaciers.

The rise of sea levels will swamp coastal areas, particularly on the eastern coast of the peninsula. It will also increase seasonal flooding in Bangkok and other towns. The OECD ranked Bangkok seventh in the world among cities where climate change will affect people and property.

The impact of rising sea levels is magnified by the effect of more intense storms, which destroy coastal mangroves and other natural barriers. The seacoast along the upper Gulf of Thailand between the Thachin and Bang Pakong rivers has already become severely eroded. In Phra Samut Chedi district of Samut Prakan, the sea is advancing at 25 metres a year. In Bangkok’s Bang Khunthien district, the rate is only fractionally slower. Village settlements and cultivated areas have been abandoned.

In total some 200 kilometres of coastline are suffering erosion from the upper Gulf down the eastern coast of the peninsula. Some of the other most critical areas are Pak Phanang district of Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Tak Bai of Narathiwat.

This flurry of new and more disturbing information has still not fluttered many eyelids in Thailand. In Europe and North America, people woke up to global warming when they could see the changes for themselves. Summers really did feel warmer and winters milder. Different flowers appeared.

For most people here, that’s not yet true. But animals may be ahead of us. Birds are beginning to move to new areas. Gibbons in Khao Yai are changing their sites and habits because the distribution of trees on which they feed is changing.

Before long we’ll have to change too.

New research brings climate change threat home to Thailand

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