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Three days to wait now for the Thai Supreme Court’s decision on former prime minister’s Bt76 billion asset seizure case. The government has beefed up security around the capital, while the “red-shirt” protesters, who support Mr Thaksin, have threatened to stage rallies if the Supreme Court’s ruling should go against him.
Meanwhile, fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra recent claim that he is “not concerned” about having his 76 billion baht seized by the government sounds all too hollow. If so, why all the fuss, one could ask?
Anyway, yesterday there a seminar on Thailand’s future where Thaksin participated via a video conference call, in which he claimed that Thailand has been without justice for the past five years. Definitions of “justice” sometimes run counter to perceptions here but he said that he had received complaints from foreign investors about “the dubious business practices in Thailand”. Now, that is rich.
He went on to warn that foreign investments could easily evaporate should Thailand’s political situation remain unstable. The former prime minister was in no mood for conciliation and blamed all of the problems of Thailand on “the person with influence” who initiated the coup, reiterating that there was no “wrongdoing”, saying the money had been earned prior to him entering politics. Not quite.
According to The Nation newspaper, the final quarter of 2009 saw the Thai economy “rebound from a year-long recession”, with growth in the fourth quarter surging 5.8 per cent from a year earlier. JP Morgan suggested Thailand will “see a 6.5 per cent growth rate” this year, with a rebound in exports and government spending helped the economic turnaround. That is, if Mr Thaksin really does shrug his shoulders if the sequestration order proceeds against him.
Surprisingly, tourist revenues in December “jumped sharply to help turn the Thai economy around”. But this upturn now heavily depends on the fallout as from Friday, as domestic political uncertainty is back in the frame. And although the Supreme Court, which is due to rule on Friday on the Bt76 billion asset seizure case, with the government having beefed up security around the capital, there are still fears that the red-shirt protesters, who support Thaksin, have threatened to stage rallies if the Supreme Court’s ruling should go against him.
On the front page of the Bangkok Post today, the accusations got even steamier, with the New Politics Party spokeman, the former “yellow-shirts”, clamining that there were rumours that “five of the nine judges” had been offered “one billion baht each” to turn the ruling in Thaksin’s favour.
At this point, despite the welcome news of recovery, the Thai economy is still being held hostage by the political uncertainty. Less than three days to go before the court’s verdict, most Thais are holding their breath about the possible outcome. No matter what the ruling is, the political uncertainty will continue to drag on, probably until March. With this uncertainty, the business environment is likely to be subdued and the high growth rate expectations might turn out to be overly optimistic.
Amongst all this, Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-archa said that “1.579 million visitors arrived in Thailand in January, a 24.35% increase over the same month last year.” I would ask him to take a look at the Ko Chang Island stats that suggest March is significantly down on lat year.
Travel agents and tourists have been asking the TAT how the verdict will affect the country’s stability and infrastructure, with England, France, Italy, Belgium, Germany and Australia having issued travel advisories, telling their citizens to be careful while visiting Thailand and to avoid areas with demonstrations in non-tourist areas.
Citing the world’s economy recovery, this year would be a “golden year of Thailand’s tourism sector”, if there in no unrest, because more foreign arrivals are expected. With the red-shirts seem to to running out of steam, and perhaps money, the Thai public is thoroughly fed up with their political manipulations.
It’s hard to tell the outcome of either the assets seizure case and their reaction to it, but for those who want to skip the capital and enjoy a peaceful holiday in the sun with slack regard for Thailand’s political shenanigans, Ko Chang is still the beautiful, peaceful island it always was.
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