Tourist arrivals to Thailand this year could drop 15-20 per cent this year from 14.5 million last year to 12-13.5 million, according to the survey of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Tourism revenue would also drop 10-15 per cent on year from Bt520 billion to Bt450-Bt490 billion.

Covering 412 samples, the survey conducted during June 25-29 showed that respondents attributed hard times to the global economic recession, the 2009 influenza, and political turbulence.

The majority of Thai operators, 61.58 per cent, expected the tourism industry to pick up in the first quarter of next year, while 15.84 per cent expected the recovery in the second half of next year.

They urged the government to focus on restoring confidence, maintaining hygienic standards and providing soft loans to operators.

Sixty per cent of the respondents said they are resorting to savings to support the business, while many negotiate for loans from new banks and reschedule existing loans.

Thailand tourism revenue may fall 10-15%: UTCC survey

Technorati Tags: Thailand tourism revenue may fall 10-15%: UTCC survey

The economy has already bottomed out and business confidence is back on track despite lingering risk factors, the Bank of Thailand said yesterday.

“The stable economic figures and the government’s [fiscal] policies indicate that the possibility of continuing economic contraction has decreased,” senior director Amara Sriphayak said.

Seasonally adjusted economic figures - both on the demand and supply sides - in the first two months of the second quarter have improved from the first quarter.

The government’s economic policies and rising domestic and external demand would continue to help lift the economy.

The central bank believes that the economy in the second quarter would perform better than the previous quarter but still fall short of the previous year.

Economic risks remained from non-continuing government spending, the global economy and influenza, she said.

The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) looking ahead three months was 50.2 in May, higher than the confidence level of 50 for the first time in 15 months, according to the central bank.

Investor concerns for economic and political uncertainty as well as for the difficulty in adjusting prices were relieved. However, they are still worried about operating costs due to the rise in retail oil prices, she said.

The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for April-May shot up 9.1 per cent from the first quarter, thanks to greater external demand. Manufacturing accounts for 40 per cent of gross domestic product.

The MPI in export-oriented sectors - particularly electronics - soared 20.7 per cent in April-May from the first quarter, which helped boost the Kingdom’s net exports.

Exports in April-May dropped 25.9 per cent on year, compared with a 19.9-per-cent drop in the first quarter, she said.

The contraction in exports and imports will continue, due to the high-base effect, but exports have already stabilised while imports of raw materials are a sign of reviving economic activity.

Domestic orders have slightly bolstered manufacturing. Imports of consumer goods reflect the gloomy mood of consumers.

The government’s policy to help with the cost of living, however, gave an impetus to retail sales.

The Private Consumption Index in April-May increased by a slight 0.4 per cent from the first quarter, which had retreated 4.7 per cent from the fourth quarter of last year.

The index slipped 5 per cent on year, compared with a 5.3-per-cent drop in the first quarter.

A sustained domestic recovery would become clearer gradually. This would encourage capacity utilisation and eventually investment expansion.

Private investment would gain momentum only when the government moved ahead with its investment projects, together with the recovery in business and consumer confidence.

The Private Investment Index in May dropped 1 per cent from the previous month, compared with a 0.6-per-cent fall in April. It dropped 16.5 per cent on year, compared with a 16.4-per-cent decrease in April.

Meanwhile, the government has run a cash deficit of Bt480.87 billion in the first eight months of this fiscal year, due to falling revenue and rising budget disbursement, said Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.

Government revenue in May alone dropped sharply by 32.2 per cent year-on-year to Bt114.42 billion, leaving a cash deficit of Bt47.48 billion in that month.

BOT says Thai economy has bottomed out

Technorati Tags: BOT says Thai economy has bottomed out

The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects 14 million foreign tourists to visit Thailand next year, and with an expected 90 million trips by domestic holidaymakers, it believes tourism will enjoy total revenue of Bt960 billion in 2010.

The number of inbound tourists will represent a 5.6-per-cent increase over this year’s expected 13.2 million visitors. International tourists are expected to generate revenue of Bt540 billion next year, up 6.4 per cent from this year’s targeted revenue of Bt530 billion from inbound visitors

Officials in China yesterday withdrew that country’s official warning against travel to Thailand, following Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s visit last week. The move is expected to draw more than 100,000 Chinese tourists to Thailand in the remaining months of this year.

Acting TAT governor Pensuda Priaram said the agency would concentrate on attracting tourists from two potential markets next year: South Asia and the Middle East. These regions have suffered less than others from the global economic crisis.

“In 2010, the TAT hopes to attract 823,000 tourists from South Asia, up 13 per cent, generating revenue of Bt25 billion, up 15.4 per cent. As well, 450,000 tourists from the Middle East are expected to visit Thailand, spending about Bt19 billion,” Pensuda said.

The TAT hopes arrivals from all over Asia will grow 3.8 per cent next year to 6.9 million visitors, bringing revenue of Bt162 billion.

Some 4.7 million tourists from Europe are expected next year, generating revenue of Bt237 billion. The number of visitors from the Americas and Oceania are also expected to grow, by 4.9 per cent and 4.2 percent, respectively, providing revenue of Bt46 billion and Bt37 billion.

However, visitors from East Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong, are expected to drop 14.9 per cent to 6.7 million. Revenue from this source will fall 21.7 per cent to Bt156 billion. Tourists from Africa are also expected to plunge 17 per cent to only 90,000.

Suraphon Svetsreni, deputy governor for planning and policies, said to deal with Thailand’s tourism crisis, the TAT would approach new markets by participating in international trade shows in Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Canada, Japan, Iran, Oman, Jordan, Poland, Syria and the US.

Weerasak Kowsurat, chairman of TAT’s board, said packaged tours would be introduced to attract transfer passengers waiting on stopovers at Suvarnabhumi Airport.

The agency is also planning to approach niche markets like diving, youths, weddings, golf, shopping and senior tourists.

The government has extended the exemption on fees for tourist visa applications until next March 31. The exemption will apply to visa applications made on arrival at all international airports and at Thai embassies.

As well, booklets have been released detailing travel programmes lasting only 72 hours in popular destinations like Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Pattaya.

Wansadet Thavornsuk, deputy governor for domestic markets, said the TAT planned to spend Bt500 million to boost domestic tourism next year. One measure will be encouraging public and private organisations to hold meetings and conferences within Thailand.

Santichai Euachongprasit, deputy governor for international marketing, said the TAT planned to open two new offices later this year, in Kunming, China and Mumbai, India. Next year, it plans a new office in Jakarta.

“We also plan to invite celebrities to Thailand to join highlighted events for positive coverage,” he said.

Thai Hotels Association president Prakit Shinamourphong said an end to political unrest in Thailand would be a key factor in driving tourism over the coming year.

2010 Tourism Forecast: Foreign visitors expected to surge

Technorati Tags: 2010 Tourism Forecast: Foreign visitors expected to surge

Across the country 137 hotels and resorts are joining the “Blue Hotels Campaign” in offering discounts of more than 50 per cent on their room rates during the off season.

“The campaign is expected to boost tourism in the country and also to help farmers sell their products. This is one of the measures to save our economy,” Keeravuj Kitiyadisai, an adviser to the commerce minister, said yesterday.

The Commerce Ministry and Thai Hotels Association came up with the idea to resurrect the tourism industry in a short time.

The effort is hoped to stimulate local movement and draw international tourists back to the country in these difficult times.

Hotels in major tourist destinations have reported lower occupancy rates this month compared to last year, but the campaign is expected to help operators gain some revenue.

Participating are 27 hotels from the North, 24 from the East, 38 hotels from the South, 14 from the West and 34 from greater Bangkok.

They would offer the special promotion until the end of September or this year’s low season.

All hotels are urged to use local fruits and products to serve guests instead of imported products.

The strategy is aimed at assisting and promoting the activities of the tourism and lodging industries as well as helping entrepreneurs to recover lost business. The ministry is also calling on hotels to make seasonal OTOP products available at a special corner of their premises.

Other service provider participants are shops, outlets, cooperatives, fresh markets, taxis, entertainment venues and cargo carriers.

The campaign would raise the tourism industry’s contribution to a hoped-for national economic recovery in the remaining months of the year, Keeravuj said.

This coincides with the authority’s attempts to achieve 5-per-cent growth, or 87 million trips, in the domestic tourism market this year.

The ministry is also working with the Tourism Authority of Thailand to launch the “Bustling Thai Tourism, Burgeoning Thai Economy” drive, which is hoped to stimulate domestic tourism in the rest of this year.

Reviving Thai tourism: hotels to offer 50% discount

Technorati Tags: Reviving Thai tourism: hotels to offer 50% discount

The future of honorary Thai consulates around the world is in doubt following the Thai government’s move to waive tourist visa fees until March 2010.

The Thailand Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday announced that as of today all foreigners applying for single-entry tourist visas at Thai embassies, consulates and honorary consulates will be exempt from fees.

Yet some honorary Thai consulates fear the move will cost them millions of baht in lost visa revenue and could result in their closure.

Alan Taylor, Honorary Thai Consul in Hull, UK, said unlike embassies and consulates, the 450 honorary consulates worldwide relied on the money they bring in selling visas.

“We won’t be closing but some will certainly be closing their doors,” he said.

William Dunn, Honorary Thai Consul in Brisbane, Australia, said those offices that relied heavily on tourist visa revenue would be worst affected.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bangkok today told the Gazette that the Thai government would reimburse any lost income.

This was news to Mr Taylor.

“We’ve had no contact whatsoever,” he said. “No money has been offered and we’ve been told nothing.”

Earlier this year visa fees were waived between March 5 and June 4.

Both Mr Dunn and Mr Taylor said they saw no money from the Thai government for lost income during this period.

Mr Dunn had doubts his office would be reimbursed.

“They have talked about it but they won’t do it,” he said. “For a start, I don’t think the money situation’s too good.”

Mr Taylor said the Hull office would have to look at ways of mitigating a “huge drop in visa income”.

“Numbers of applicants are unlikely to drop. If anything, they will increase dramatically because people will get something for nothing,” he said.

Writing on the ThaiVisa.com web forum, a spokesperson for the Honorary Thai Consulate in Calgary, Canada, said, “This decision, as well as the previous decision waiving tourist visa fees for 90 days, has been a great disappointment to us here in Calgary. It seems as if Thailand is attempting to get rid of all honorary consulates around the world, no matter how helpful and successful they have been…”

Free visa plan backfires on Thai honorary consulates

Technorati Tags: Free visa plan backfires on Thai honorary consulates

The days of stashing cash in a money belt for overseas trips may be numbered, according to the Travel Smart Survey commissioned by Visa.

2,226 people surveyed from 11 Asia-Pacific countries and territories, nearly half (45 per cent) said they preferred to pay primarily by electronic payment cards when abroad. The study also found a divide between the sexes - men (49 per cent) were more likely to use cards to pay for purchases overseas than women (39 per cent).

Although using cash (55 per cent) remains popular, a key reason that 45 per cent of respondents said they preferred to use payment cards was that it helped to minimise personal risk.

Instead of the traditional forms of paper-based cash or cheques, respondents from South Korea were the most savvy in adopting electronic payment cards with nearly two-thirds more likely to use cards (64 per cent) rather than cash (36 per cent) when abroad. Respondents from Australia and Taiwan were the next most likely to use electronic payment cards for transactions overseas (50 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively).

Brian McGrory, Visa’s regional head, Debit Products, said there was a trend across the world which sees people moving more of their payments to cards over cash and cheques. Travellers expect to have the same payment and cash access options abroad as they would at home.

While the survey shows that cash is the most common payment method for many travellers, the convenience and widespread acceptance of electronic payment methods make this a compelling choice for secure transactions abroad.

The survey also shows that overall, business people are more likely to use cards when travelling (59 per cent) than leisure travellers (41 per cent). Business travellers from Korea (83 per cent), New Zealand (69 per cent) and Singapore (63 per cent) are the most likely to take advantage of the benefits of using electronic payment cards overseas.

McGrory added that using payment cards was a particularly useful tool for travellers as every transaction is recorded and they are not carrying large wads of cash, thereby increasing their personal risk. “For business travellers, cards help them to track, itemise and claim business expenses more easily once they get back home,” he said.

When preparing for a trip abroad, most respondents (72 per cent) prefer to access cash prior to departure, followed by those who obtain money both before departure and also on arrival (12 per cent) and those who get their money on arrival (7 per cent).

The top three reasons for obtaining cash before departure are the preference to arrive with ready cash (65 per cent), convenience (30 per cent) and better exchange rates at the point of departure (25 per cent).

When travellers need to access cash overseas the most widely known method is through ATMs (64 per cent), followed by money changers (42 per cent) and at a bank branch in destination cities (36 per cent).

Cash losing shine when abroad

Technorati Tags: Cash losing shine when abroad

The opening of the high-speed rail link between Suvarnabhumi Airport |and inner Bangkok, scheduled for December 5, could be further delayed following this week’s strike by railroad workers.

Hundreds of State Railway of Thailand employees returned to work yesterday evening after paralysing much of the national rail service for 36 hours.

Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart said the SRT labour union had agreed to end the strike following the government’s pledge that the union would participate in reorganising the money-losing state agency.

The SRT is in the process of setting up two wholly owned companies: one for train operations and the other for real-estate management.

The company in charge of train operations will be responsible for running the 28.6-kilometre Airport Rail Link, which is due to open in December.

“I’m not sure if the rail link can still be opened as scheduled, because the process to form the SRT company will be halted until negotiations between the SRT union and the agency’s top management are concluded,” Transport Minister Sophon Saram said yesterday.

He said he hoped the talks would not be protracted and could be concluded within two weeks, or else the SRT would face greater financial damage.

The country’s international image would also take a further hit if the multibillion-baht elevated rail service between Suvarnabhumi Airport and the inner city did not start operation as scheduled, he added.

The high-speed rail service between the international airport - located in the suburbs of Bangkok - and Makkasan Station was originally due to open in August, but construction delays led to a postponement.

Leaders of the SRT union, which went on a selective wildcat strike on Monday morning, causing disruption to hundreds of thousands of commuters, said they were concerned the SRT would further privatise other routes of the national rail service.

Yesterday, the union entered into a memorandum of understanding with the government to end the strike on condition there be further negotiations between the two sides over the SRT’s reorganisation.

The SRT has been losing money for years, with accumulated losses amounting to more than Bt70 billion.

Sanan said the SRT management would have to hold talks with the union, as the latter still lacked a clear understanding of the reorganisation plan aimed at boosting the agency’s efficiency and reducing its chronic losses.

Sawit Kaewwan, president of the SRT union, said rail workers had needed to take the drastic action of the past two days in order to achieve the union’s objective, even though many commuters were left stranded as a result.

Deputy Finance Minister Pradit Pataraprasit said the SRT needed to be reorganised quickly, because the government had committed to investing Bt170 billion in more railroad projects over the next few years.

Airport to Bangkok rail link faces further delay

Technorati Tags: Airport to Bangkok rail link faces further delay

Source: The Nation

In an effort to lure more foreign couples planning weddings and honeymoons to the Kingdom, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) will make the group-wedding ceremonies it has held in various destinations an annual event.

Couples planning to wed or take their honeymoons have become a potentially lucrative market for Thailand, despite the uncertainty caused by the economic crisis and the Kingdom’s political problems.

Auggaphol Brickshawana, the TAT’s deputy governor for tourism products, said the agency is promoting three products internationally - ecotourism, medical tourism and “trendy” products.

As part of the latter category of products, “weddings and honeymoons are important magnets for high-end tourists this year,” Auggaphol said.

This group spends three times more per head than general visitors, at approximately Bt50,000 per person per trip, he said. In particular, the authority is targeting tourists in this group from France, India, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The TAT is also working with luxury hotels and Thai Airways International to host annual group-wedding ceremonies in Thailand. The alliance held its second group celebration at the Mandarin Oriental Dhara Dhevi Chiang Mai Hotel from June 18 to 20.

Fifteen couples from several European countries, including the Netherlands, Belgium and France, joined the celebration. Miss France first runner-up also celebrated her wedding here while a leading French model was among the guests.

Last year, the TAT and Rose Garden Resort hosted the first event, which drew 15 couples from Europe, most of them French. Thailand is already the third most popular honeymoon destination for French newlyweds, following the Seychelles and the Maldives.

Thailand third most popular honeymoon destination for French newlyweds

Technorati Tags: Thailand third most popular honeymoon destination for French newlyweds

Former energy minister Piyasvasti Amranand will take over as president of Thai Airways International, which is fighting for survival amid a slew of challenges facing the national carrier.

Piyasvasti was reportedly approached by Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij to head the financially ailing airline.

The top post had been left vacant since Apinan Sumanaseni resigned last November.

Narongsak Sangapong, a senior executive vice president at THAI, has been acting as president over the past several months while the tourism industry and airlines have been devastated by the global recession as well as domestic political unrest.

Now the tourism industry is facing a new threat from the swine flu epidemic, resulting in a further drop in foreign arrivals.

THAI chairman Ampon Kittiampon said after the board of directors’ meeting yesterday that the Finance Ministry, the majority shareholder of the airline, would negotiate a compensation package with Piyasvasti.

This should be completed by the middle of next month, after which Piyasvasti will officially take up his office.

An aviation industry source said Piyasvasti was expected to work hand in hand with Pichai Chunhavajira, who crafted a rehabilitation road map for the airline that calls for cost savings of Bt12 billion a year.

This would include delaying the delivery of new aircraft.

The THAI board also approved the borrowing of Bt23 billion from local financial institutions as part of its business rescue plan.

The first Bt5 billion will be secured from the Government Savings Bank this month.

The airline flew back to profit last quarter after reporting a heavy loss in the last quarter of last year.

However, the outlook for this and the next quarter is not encouraging due to the impacts of the global economic slowdown as well as the spread of swine flu.

Piyasvasti held the energy portfolio from October 2006-February 2008. Previously, he was secretary-general of the National Energy Policy Office and director-general of the Public Relations Department.

In the private sector, Piyasvasti worked as chairman of Kasikorn Asset Management and chairman of the panel of advisers to the CEO of Kasikornbank.

Currently, he is an adviser to the Energy for the Environment Foundation.

Political analysts said the choice of Piyasvasti as THAI president sailed through without turbulence as the ruling Democrat Party, whose quota covered Piyasvasti, had already struck a deal with coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party, which controls the Transport Ministry.

Bhumi Jai Thai had nominated Ampon, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, as THAI’s chairman.

Piyasvasti takes over at THAI

Technorati Tags: Piyasvasti takes over at THAI

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (Pata) yesterday said the global tourism sector should return to positive growth in the fourth quarter.

John Koldowski, director of the Thai chapter’s Strategic Intelligence Centre, said the global tourism industry had already turned the corner and was now recovering.

He said the sector suffered the worst in the first quarter. Even though the situation is improving, the sector will still experience a negative growth in the second quarter.

“I would say there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Tourism generally, in Thailand, might rebound to the positive side in the last quarter of this year. The tourism outlook is expected to be above the zero level,” said Koldowski.

He said it was difficult to predict a time line for a full recovery, because that depended heavily on potentially threatening factors like political unrest, terrorism and the spread of type-A (H1N1) influenza.

Koldowski said Thailand had been successful with tourism for many years, but now the country was facing difficult times. And many more risks and unexpected issues may pop up in the future.

“Pata has called for operators to prepare crisis management, to deal with any unexpected problems,” Koldowski said.

Thailand’s Pata members yesterday gathered in Bangkok to study risk and crisis management from real cases around the world. They also practised various crisis scenarios, including the present flu outbreak.

Koldowski said the government should rebuild tourism by inviting regular tourists who used to visit the Kingdom back with incentives and promotions.

“Approaching new visitors might not work for now, as they are not confident about the situation. So the government should go to previous tourists and tell them all the attractions remain safe and beautiful,” he said.

However, Pata disagrees with cutting prices to entice tourists back to the country, because they are more concerned about security.

Thailand’s tourism was damaged following Bangkok’s airport closures late last year and the related political turmoil. Many international tourists are heading to neighbouring countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam instead.

Pata estimates 12 million tourist arrivals this year, nearly the same as the number projected by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).

Weerasak Kowsurat, chairman of TAT’s board, said his agency was working with the Transport Ministry, the Thai Hotels Association, the Tourism Council of Thailand and the private sector to monitor the present crisis.

The TAT’s Crisis Intelligence Centre, which was set up two years ago, can assist tourists in an emergency.

Some key operators, such as Thai Airways International and Centara Hotels & Resorts, have now established their own crisis centres.

Global tourism: PATA predicts Q4 turnaround

Technorati Tags: Global tourism: PATA predicts Q4 turnaround